The Five Most Likely Outcomes from the GOP Convention


Real Clear Politics co-founder Tom Bevan recently spoke to Fox News’ Megyn Kelly about the ongoing GOP presidential primary and the five most likely outcomes of the upcoming Republican convention in June.

Tom Bevan: If you look at scenario #1, I’d rate this at about 25% –a one-in-four chance that Trump actually gets outright 1,237 delegates. That will become a lot clearer after New York in about 11 days. If he can stay above 50% and sweep up a lot of those delegates that will boost him going into the other East coast primaries.

The other state to watch is Indiana, that is being sort of overlooked. If Trump can win in Indiana, that’ll set him up for a pretty good position in California… He’s not going to get there by much, it is going to come down to just a few delegates. 

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Megyn Kelly: It is going to come down to [the final day of primary elections on] June 7, at best. Nobody is getting this nomination befor June 7 at the earliest.

Tom Bevan: That’s right. If you look at scenario #2, where Trump comes up short, I would give that a little higher odds…

Megyn Kelly: Scenario 2 is we get to June 7, the voting is done, and Trump is the leader but he doesn’t have 1,237. How does he make up the difference between June 7 and the convetion in late July.

Tom Bevan: He’s going to have to woo these delegates… Take them out to dinner, backroom deal them. He says he is a dealmaker, he is going to have to prove it…

It is going to matter how close he gets to the [1,237] number. And I would use 1,200 as a break-even point… If he is under 1,200 I think it is going to be a lot harder.

If he’s got momentum heading into and beyond California, I think it will be a lot easier for him to sweep up some of these delegates…

Bevan then goes on to discuss some of the other possibilities that the GOP will face in Cleveland, but rates these other possibilities much less likely. One in particular that has fascinated many anti-establishment conservatives is the idea that Donald Trump and [score]Ted Cruz[/score] could form a “unity ticket,” joining forces in an effort to unite the party against the Democrat candidates. Bevan–and many conservative pundits– believe this to be an extremely unlikely outcome, especially as the campaign wears on and the sides likely grow even more antagonistic.

The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by

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