Is the Republican Party Coalescing around Donald Trump?

“Nothing astonishes a man so much as common-sense and plain dealing.”  —Ralph Waldo Emerson

A Big Night

On April 26, 2016—also known as Super Tuesday—Donald Trump won every county of each of the five states being contested.  Trump won every demographic, including women and conservatives.  And the results showed Trump winning better than 50% in all states.  As a result of this landslide, Trump announced that he was now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.


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An Inaccurate Characterization of Trump

On the heels of a significant defeat for [score]Ted Cruz[/score] and Kasich in New York, Cruz began to criticize Trump increasingly on allegations that Trump is a “New York liberal.”  But the problem is that Trump is not a progressive; he supports the US Constitution and the rule of law, is pro-Second Amendment, wants to cut the size of government (beginning with eliminating the un-Constitutional Department of Education), says he will enforce immigration laws by securing the border with a wall, and promises to make America’s defense strong and respected once again.

On social policy, Trump could be categorized as a moderate or libertarian; on the abortion issue, he takes the position that abortion is wrong with the exceptions of pregnancy by rape, pregnancy due to incest, and danger to the woman’s health (the most conservative position favors the banning of all abortions, while the most progressive position allows abortions up to, and including, the birth of the child).  Trump does not favor legislation for or against gay or transsexual issues, but has instead seemed to advocate the position of leaving people alone to work matters out among themselves.

So, the problem in Cruz’s attempt to cast Trump as Hillary Clinton’s evil twin is that, by doing so, Cruz has only managed to discredit himself to an increasing number of voters, many of them conservative.  As a result, Cruz finished dead last in four out of five primaries on Super Tuesday, and Trump even picked up the large majority of unbound delegates in Pennsylvania.  This is a stunning reversal of fortune for Cruz, perhaps owing in part to the fact that conservative voters, who initially took offense at Trump’s “Lyin’ Ted” designation of Cruz, began to feel that perhaps that moniker was not misplaced, given Cruz’s unfair depiction of Trump as a “rich New York liberal.”


Disillusioned Conservatives Abandon the Cruz Ship

California, which is home to 330 tea party groups, due to the fact that its residents arguably suffer from more government mendacity and tyranny than those of any other state, has begun to see Trump pull away from Cruz in terms of tea-party support statewide.  The team-up between Cruz and Kasich came across as a desperate abandonment of convenience of conservatism, on the part of Cruz.  The move also served to alienate those who had worked hard for Cruz, only to be told to stand down in some states to leave the path clear for Kasich, in exchange for Kasich’s standing down in Indiana.  The deal eventually fell apart, but the damage had already been done.  Committed Cruz campaign-workers saw their candidate with new eyes; he now seemed to them to be less than committed to the grassroots supporters who had worked so hard for him since he announced his candidacy back on March 23, 2015.

Many people’s faith in Cruz has been shattered as a result of this serious misstep, even as people are finding Trump’s tell-it-like-it-is approach refreshingly honest.  Conservatives are generally practical types who are more willing to buy into the views of someone solid, rather than take an unwise chance on someone who has been behaving disingenuously.


A Desperate Act

Ted Cruz and Carly FiorinaOn Wednesday, April 27, 2016, Cruz made the desperate move of naming his vice-presidential running mate!  Carly Fiorina was named as his number two, even though there is no clear path to the nomination for Cruz.  This makes Cruz appear to be desperate, indeed.  As the primary season continues, it is likely that Trump’s support will only increase.  And part of the reason for this likelihood is the fact that people prefer certainty over chaos.  A contested convention is something that very few grassroots voters truly desire.  The risk that such a convention would split the Republican Party irreparably, allowing Hillary Clinton an easier shot at a win in November, is too grim to contemplate.  As matters stand, Trump has only to tell the truth about Hillary’s indiscretions, in order to drive her negatives up way past his own, during the presidential campaign.  A Trump nomination will all but guarantee a win for the Republicans in November.


Women Want Security

Many have said that Trump will lose the women’s vote, come November.  But what is often left out of the discussion is the fact that women hate Hillary much more than they hate the Donald.  And, when faced with a Clinton who enables a world of Muhammadan wife-beating tradition and rape culture, Trump makes many women feel safe.  Remember: Clinton repeatedly defended her husband’s sexual violence against women, and Clinton’s closest confidante—some say her lover—is Huma Abedin, a jihadist Muslim who, in 1998, began work as Assistant Editor for the terroristic Muslim Brotherhood’s Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, a job which she performed for 12 years!  Trump’s nickname for Clinton—Crooked Hillary—has already begun to stick.


Why Trump Will Win Indiana

Although Cruz has declared Indiana to be his firewall, Trump has a definite edge in winning the state, due to the fact that it is home to Carrier, the air-conditioning company that is planning to move to Mexico.  Trump has been decrying the move and threatening the company with a tax on their products, if they carry it out.  Blue-collar workers throughout the state are with Trump, if not on his idea of a tariff in specific, at least on the notion of no longer taking the status quo sitting down.  Cruz has nowhere to go with the issue, lest he risk sounding like an echo of Trump.  And the whole transsexual bathroom issue is losing its legs, especially since Trump announced his libertarian preference to “leave it the way it is,” without forcing a statist solution.  Cruz, by the way, did not adopt the conservative approach of discouraging a state rule, instead choosing to back North Carolina’s decision to take any solution out of the hands of civil society and solving it the state level.  This more progressive, statist position on Cruz’s part has also helped to torpedo his chances of establishing a path to the nomination.


Presidential Trump

Trump gave a speech on foreign policy on Wednesday, April 27, 2016, in which he said, “My foreign policy will always put the interest of the American people and America’s security above all else.  That will be the foundation of every single decision I will make.”  Trump argued for a vision where America does not intervene in foreign countries, unless doing so is clearly in America’s best interest: “America First will be the major and overriding theme of my administration.”  Trump continued on, saying of the Obama/Clinton foreign policy that “[w]e went from mistakes in Iraq to Egypt to Libya, to President Obama’s line in the sand in Syria.  Each of these actions have helped to throw the region into chaos, and gave ISIS the space it needs to grow and prosper.”

Trump’s speech made it clear that Trump is a serious thinker on matters of foreign policy.  And his giving the speech at this time is a clear signal that, as the presumptive nominee, he is now elevating his thinking to the level of presidential principle-setting and problem-solving.


The Bandwagon Effect

In the end, once California has voted, Trump will have accomplished one of two things: he will have secured the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination outright, on the first ballot; or he will be so close to doing so that Rubio and Kasich delegates, who wish to see a possible role for their candidates in a Trump administration, will jump on the Trump Train to give him the majority he needs.


Big Tent

At this point in the 2012 primary season, Republicans had already begun to coalesce around Mitt Romney, and Romney had won 2.1 million fewer votes than Trump has now garnered.  Trump offers Republicans the chance to become the Party of the Big Tent, thereby handing the Democrats a huge set-back.  This would be a better situation for conservatives overall, giving conservatives a larger audience to address and weakening the Washington Cartel—to use Cruz’s nomenclature—which has been the undisputed enemy of conservative Republicans in the past.  And this begs the following question: Why is preserving the status quo so much better than a Trump presidency?  A Trump nomination just might be a good thing for moderate and conservative Republicans alike.

The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by

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