An Insider’s View of the GOP Primary in New Hampshire – Expect things to get Crazy!


With merely two weeks until the first in the nation Presidential primary, now is where the rubber truly meets the road. It’s “Showtime”, and all eyes are on New Hampshire, as well as Iowa. As a New Hampshire resident for the past 11 years, this is my third go-round with living through the local scene that is all-encompassing as far as the Presidential race.

It has been going on in earnest for over 6 months, but it has been heating up over the past couple of weeks. Every day we are called at home to answer a survey question or to be invited to a candidate’s local town hall meeting. Every day we are bombarded with glossy 8×10 mailers from some super-PAC either endorsing a candidate or selling another down the river.

It is all over the local NH newspapers, and the local talk-radio stations. Plus, I see candidate political signs/ yard signs all over the place. For six months, it is its own economy around here.

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I have heard many of the hopefuls on local talk radio programs, and I have spoken to many other NH residents about what they are thinking and considering. With all that said, a Primary winner prediction is in order. Realizing that predictions normally do not go well, the following is my own personal opinion of how NH will vote, with rankings and a few notes of “Why?”.


Rank Name Notes
1 Donald Trump He is too far ahead in all the polls to lose now; I have spoken to   plenty of people that do like him. (I also know many people would never vote for him, locally. This would hurt him in the general election.)


2 Marco Rubio He is competitive in the polls, plus NH has a long history of voting for an “establishment” Republican candidate.   2000- McCain; 2008- McCain; 2012- Romney)


3 Ted Cruz Ted is doing well nationally, and will likely win Iowa. This will help him in NH a little bit, but NH is one of the least religious states in the USA. His outward beliefs will not help him here.


4 Dr. Ben Carson Dr. Carson has quite a lot of yard signs around different parts of NH. He still has a fair amount of supporters here.


5 John Kasich One poll shows him tied in second here. I have seen ONE Kasich yard sign so far, total.


6 Chris Christie The largest NH newspaper endorsed him recently. Who cares?   When was the last time that really mattered to the majority of voters?


7 Jeb Bush I don’t see any way that Bush cracks the top 4 or 5 here. He (or his PAC) has by far spent the most $$ here in mailer advertisements.   People are tired of all the mail and all the attach ads.


8 Rand Paul Paul will always have his share of votes in NH, the “Live Free Or Die” state.


9 Carly Fiorina Fiorina is an interesting, non-establishment candidate and does have a few local well-known politicians endorsing her.


10 Mike Huckabee Like Cruz, his religious fervor will not help him here.


11 Rick Santorum I don’t think he will crack 1% of the vote. No presence here.


There you have it.

Let’s see how correct I am, and I am curious also as to who drops out of the race after the NH Primary. I’m assuming that 2 or 3 people (final 3 on my list above) will drop out the day or two after the NH results. Bush still has the money to stay in for a few more states, hoping for a miracle. Due to money, if Kasich does not come in Top 4 here, I think he drops outs.



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