A new study has found that the number of illegal aliens already here in the U.S. is off by half and instead of 11 million illegals there are over 22 million.
The new study was published Friday by Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, a senior lecturer at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Fazel-Zarandi revealed the disturbing information that the eleven million estimate that most media outlets use is way, way off.
As Daily Caller reported:
Even the lower bound of the MIT study’s range, 16.7 million, is nearly 50 percent higher than the 11.3 million estimated by the Pew Research Center for 2016.
Such a wide discrepancy is explained by deficiencies in the methods researchers have used to arrive at previous estimates, according to Fazel-Zarandi and his co-authors, Edward Kaplan and Jonathan Feinstein of Yale University. In the past, researchers typically extrapolated the total number of illegal immigrants from population surveys and legal immigration records.
Fazel-Zarandi and his colleagues used mathematical modeling based on “operational data” — border apprehensions, deportations, visa overstays and demographic data — to arrive at their estimate. The approach eliminated the uncertainty found in methods that rely on surveys, which are a less reliable gauge of the illegal immigrant population, according to the researchers.
“It’s very likely that undocumented immigrants are more difficult to locate and survey than other foreign-born residents, and if contacted, they might be inclined to misreport their country of origin, citizenship, and number of household residents fearing the legal consequences of revealing their status,” Fazel-Zarandi in a news release. “Any of these circumstances would lead to underestimating the true number of unauthorized immigrants.”
The MIT study, which spans 1990 to 2016, also used newly available arrest data to estimate the number of illegal border crossings during that time period. It found the number of illegal immigrants coming into the U.S. rose steadily throughout the 1990s, peaked around 2008, and has leveled off and stabilized since then.
Fazel-Zarandi also pointed out that we can’t even have an informed and useful debate on the problems and solutions to illegal immigration if we don’t even know how many people we are talking about in the first place.
Indeed, he is right. After all, you may not have a problem if you are forced to add a new person to your household. Maybe you can get by just fine. But, what if you are told that you must spend money to house, feed, and care for ten or twenty? And then you aren’t told if it will even be ten or twenty, but just told to prepare!? Presumably you would find planning for such an event to be impossible.
That is what the country faces. If we can’t even say for sure how many illegals are here in the first place, how do we make plans to meet this problem?
Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston.
The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by EagleRising.com