Reaching for Four-Percent Growth: Trump’s Economy

The economy is almost experiencing four-percent growth despite economists saying that it would be lower!

A year ago even Fox Business was expressing skepticism that we could attain four-percent growth in the economy. Grover Norquist was one of the few who thought the President could do it.

What a difference a year of Donald Trump makes! The Gross Domestic Product is nearing four-percent grown, surpassing what many experts were predicting! The rate of growth has almost doubled since the first quarter!

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CNBC reports, “Trump’s forecast of 4% GDP growth close to coming true as Americans spend tax-bill proceeds.

The economy in the second quarter is tracking close to 4 percent growth — a level President Donald Trump raved about last December, just before the tax bill was approved. At the same time, he had also told reporters he was holding out for a doubling of growth to 6 percent.

For now, his 4 percent forecast is close to coming true on a quarterly basis, after strong retail sales data pushed up tracking GDP growth for the second quarter to about double the first quarter’s level. The economy grew by 2.2 percent in the first quarter.

CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid GDP Update reported economists’ estimates of tracking GDP show average growth at 3.8 percent, following Thursday’s retail sales report. Their actual forecasts, which take into account economic reports yet to be released, is running at an average 3.6 percent.

Retail sales in May were up 0.8 percent, double what some economists expected. Without autos, sales were up 0.9 percent.

“On the heels of this data we now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1,” wrote JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. If the economy hits that growth rate, it would be the best since the third quarter of 2014.

[…]

White House economic advisors last fall had expected just the corporate tax cuts to send growth to 3 percent to 5 percent annual pace within three years, and they could be hitting the low end of the range this year. In December, Trump was even more optimistic: “So we’re at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don’t go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent,” […].

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About the author

Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder is the "nom de plume" (or "nom de guerre") of a fifty-ish-year-old writer and stroke survivor. He lives in St Louis with his wife and still-at-home children. He has been a freelance writer and occasional political activist since the early nineties. He describes his politics as Tolkienesque.

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