Trump has presided over three quarters of three-percent economic growth, which hasn’t happened since 2005.
Donald Trump’s presence, his promises, and his actions that have been consistent with those promises, have raised business optimism and stimulated economic growth that far exceeds the growth of the previous twelve years. Trump and his people had said they wanted three-percent growth, but most economists did not believe that was possible.
I don’t know how long this growth rate will sustain itself, but what has happened has absolutely disproven what the Democrats (and many Republicans) were saying during the campaign about the Trump economy. They had no idea what was possible in America.
In the year since President Donald Trump has been in office, the economy has done something it has been unable to do since 2005 — maintain 3 percent growth for three quarters in a row.
While the final numbers aren’t in, economists Friday were ratcheting up growth projections to 3 percent or better for the fourth quarter, after December’s strong retail sales and revisions to prior months.
“It could even grow at 3 percent for the year. The numbers are very strong,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist Americas at Natixis. He forecasts an above consensus growth pace of over 4 percent for the fourth quarter.
Economists in CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Survey upped their median fourth-quarter GDP forecast Friday by a median 0.4 to 3 percent. NatWest Markets raised fourth-quarter GDP to 3.5 percent from 2.7 percent, based on a stronger view of the consumer, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow shows fourth-quarter growth now at a pace of 3.3 percent, from 2.8 percent earlier in the week.
When the White House said it expected 3 percent growth, economists were skeptical and many growth forecasts held to growth in the 2 percent range.
Economists say the White House can take some credit for consumer confidence, but in reality, the consumer was already spending before Trump and the GOP took control a year ago, and the labor market was already strong. However, the improvement in business attitudes and spending is a direct result of the changing of the guard in Washington and may be contributing to a more consistent growth pattern.
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