Brexit Predictions about the Economy Were Too Pessimistic

Economists made Brexit predictions that underestimated the British economy.

Dire Brexit predictions about how the economy of the United Kingdom would suffer if the public voted to leave the European Union have turned out to be wrong. Stories like this were overblown:

Indeed, the Brexit predictions were so far off that the economists are admitting their mistake. I don’t put too much stock in their current prognostications about the economic future (if they were wrong about Brexit they could be wrong about the Indian economy further in the future) but I’m glad they acknowledge that they were wrong.

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The Daily Mail reports, “We got it wrong on Brexit gloom, economists admit: Buoyant British economy is set to power past France by 2020.

Britain’s economy is now predicted to overtake France’s in 2020 as experts admitted they had been too gloomy over Brexit.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had claimed the economy would slow down because of a drop in consumer spending and investment.

But last night the think-tank admitted it had got this wrong, saying: ‘In practice this has not happened.’

Its economists accepted the fears they expressed last year that Brexit would leave the UK behind the French economy for five years were exaggerated.

They concluded that, despite fears of a ‘Brexodus’ of financiers, the City has actually increased its lead as the world’s financial centre since the referendum.

The CEBR said that a trade deal with Brussels looked more likely after Theresa May agreed a transitional deal with the EU earlier this month.

It said Britons should expect lower inflation and higher wages over the next few months, easing pressure on family finances. And the think-tank predicted the UK – now the world’s sixth-largest economy – will overtake France in 2020, a year earlier than it originally forecast.

However, it will also be overtaken by India and then by Brazil, making Britain the seventh-biggest economy by 2028.

Read the entire Daily Mail article.

The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by EagleRising.com


About the author

Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder is the "nom de plume" (or "nom de guerre") of a fifty-ish-year-old writer and stroke survivor. He lives in St Louis with his wife and still-at-home children. He has been a freelance writer and occasional political activist since the early nineties. He describes his politics as Tolkienesque.

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