The Chinese economy will overtake the U.S in less than 15 years, say the same people who didn’t see the 2008 financial crisis coming.
The setting of the 1988 Christmas movie Die Hard should tell us something about current predictions regarding the Chinese economy.
Back when that movie came out, everyone thought the Japanese economy was the “Asian miracle” that would dominate the United States. People held it up as a model for us to emulate and an enemy to be protected from.
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But it was just a bubble. When it burst, Japan collapsed into a ghost economy that is still dragging it down a generation later.
So, don’t take predictions about Chinese growth too seriously. If they’re right somehow, it will be a lucky guess.
China is likely to overtake the United States as the world’s No.1 economy in 2032, and India will be leaping ahead of both the UK and France by the end of next year, a new report shows.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) consultancy’s annual World Economic League Table put India in fifth place, before France in sixth and the UK in seventh in 2018.
However, come 2032, India will be in number three, Japan in number four, Germany in fifth and Brazil in sixth.
Previous reports had shown that China would take the top spot by 2031, but the predicted negative impact on the U.S. economy of President Trump has been ‘less severe’ than expected, CEBR said.
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