Why did polls fail for Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, and Brexit Opponents?
Once again, a politician relies on polls and the polls fail her. Theresa May imagined that she would gain from the U.K.’s Parliamentary general election. But she was wrong, partially because of the recurring problem that polls fail to predict voter behavior. Despite the happy result of the Brexit vote, a generation of socialist brainwashing has consequences.
With the third major embarrassment, pollsters can’t deny it any longer. They need to address the issue that polls fail. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Pollsters Survey What’s Wrong with the Polls.”
Pre-election surveys also failed to predict the outcomes of the 2015 Parliamentary general election, the 2016 Brexit vote and the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
After the earlier misses, and eager to avert repeats, polling associations in both countries organized inquiries to investigate, and correct, the causes of the failures. But the Thursday’s British results weren’t reassuring.
Leading up to the election, polls put the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of the main opposition Labour Party by 1 to 12 percentage points.
But British voters turned against the prime minister, leaving her short of the 326 seats needed to win a majority of Britain’s 650-seat Parliament.
“The irony is that pollsters were all midstream in making changes when Theresa May called the election,” said Jon Cohen, chief research officer for SurveyMonkey, which conducts online polls in the U.S. and U.K.
Polls can be bedeviled by low response rates, samples that are too small or respondents whose demographics don’t match those of voters. To examine their practices, the U.S. and U.K. each assigned a task force.
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