Artificial Intelligence is a dogma more than a technology and predictions are driven by marketing to investors.
We are regularly told that the economy is about to be disrupted by a new technology. Sometimes such predictions are true, but rarely. The majority rarely predicts accurately. If IBM had been able to see the potential for personal computers, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates would not be household name today.
Artificial intelligence has long been a religious quest in the tech field. As Tom Bethel shows, it is a dogma derived from materialism and the insistence that human consciousness derives exclusively from matter.
Thus, we regularly get headlines derived for press releases, like this one at the Daily Mail: “Artificial intelligence will outperform humans in all tasks in just 45 years and could take over EVERY job in the next century, experts claim.”
In less than 50 years, artificial intelligence will be able to beat humans at all of their own tasks, according to a new study.
And, the first hints of this shift will become apparent much sooner.
Within the next ten years alone, the researchers found AI will outperform humans in language translation, truck driving, and even writing high-school essays – and, they say machines could be writing bestselling books by 2049.
In a new study, researchers from Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, Yale University, and AI Impacts surveyed 352 machine learning experts to forecast the progress of AI in the next few decades.
The experts were asked about the timing of specific capabilities and occupations, as well as their predictions on when AI will become superior over humans in all tasks – and what the social implications of this might be.
Researcher want to get funding. Maybe some of their predictions are right, but there is no reason to believe they know anything for sure. People used to predict that air travel would be mostly supersonic. They extrapolated from improvements in air technology in the recent past. But the technology hit natural limitations. The SST Concorde was used for a while and may be used again, but that is as close as “the future” ever got to the present.
Artificial intelligence experts can’t know their limitations until the collide with them.