Latest Poll Has Clinton Trailing Trump

Written by Philip Hodges

I know we’re not supposed to trust the polls, but this latest one from Rasmussen must be troubling to the Democrats. Now, Trump is in the lead, 43% to 39%.

Just a couple days ago, the percentage gap between the two presumptive nominees had narrowed to within the 2.4% margin of error. Last week, some polls had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by double digits. Even with Rasmussen’s own polls, this time last week, Clinton was ahead of Trump 44% to 39%.

But this is the highest Trump has ever polled in Rasmussen’s matchups between Trump and Clinton since October.

The survey was conducted between June 28 and 29 and interviewed 1,000 likely voters. From Rasmussen:

His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.

Trump now earns 75% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 14% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 10% of GOP voters. Both candidates face a sizable number of potential defections because of unhappiness with them in their own parties.

While Clinton seems to be relatively unharmed in the wake of the Benghazi report’s release – thanks to the media – Trump seems to be gaining for a few reasons:

Trump made a major speech on jobs and trade on Tuesday that even the New York Times characterized as “perhaps the most forceful case he has made for the crux of his candidacy …. that the days of globalism have passed and that a new approach is necessary.” Some also speculate that last week’s vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union signals a rise of economic nationalism that is good for Trump. Despite the media panic and market swings that have resulted, Americans are not particularly worried that the “Brexit” will hurt them in the pocketbook.

The latest terrorist carnage – this week in Istanbul, Turkey – also may be helping Trump who is arguing for a harsher response to radical Islam than Clinton. Voters remain lukewarm about President Obama’s national security policies and expect more of the same if Clinton moves back into the White House next January. Trump, if elected, will definitely change things, voters say, but not necessarily for the best. 

Both Clinton and Trump have had their ups and downs in the polls, and will continue to have them until November. Major events – such as Brexit and terrorist attacks at home and abroad – can have positive or negative effects on political candidates, and most people’s perception of candidates is unfortunately shaped by the media.

The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by

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Philip Hodges

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