“Anyone who thinks my story is anywhere near over is sadly mistaken.” —Donald Trump
Let us suppose that Donald Trump reaches the Republican National Convention with 47% of the delegates. And let us say that Ted Cruz has 33% and Ben Carson 20%. On the first round of balloting, no one wins a majority of the delegates, so no nominee is chosen. This is where political deal-making begins to come into play.
The Second Ballot
So, what if Trump were to offer Cruz the Vice-Presidency, if Cruz would release his delegates from their pledges to support him and agree to ask them to vote for Trump? If Cruz agreed, this would make Trump the nominee.
And what if Cruz offered to put Carson on a Cruz-Carson ticket, in exchange for Carson’s releasing his delegates to Cruz? Or let us imagine that Carson asked Cruz to be his running-mate, promising to appoint his wife to a cabinet position and pledging to support a future Cruz run for the top job? The second ballot could have a surprising result, indeed!
The Third Ballot
So, let us imagine that something goes haywire and a group of maverick delegates go rogue, failing to vote as expected. Perhaps a significant voting-bloc of delegates abstain from voting altogether. And still no nominee is chosen.
After the Third Ballot
So, there are several things that might happen at this point. The preferred option by most grassroots activists is for the candidates to continue to wheel and deal among themselves, until some kind of an agreement is reached among the three of them. After all, these are the three people to whom voters have assigned that privilege.
Fly in the Ointment
However, there is a solution to the deadlock that might prove much less popular with the grassroots: A Republican-National-Committee brokered convention. This idea now seems to be under discussion by Reince Priebus and other Republican leaders at the RNC.
In a brokered convention, a deadlock is declared, and all the delegates are formally released to vote for whomever they wish. Next, the RNC could conceivably put forward the name of someone like Mitt Romney as a compromise candidate, hoping that enough delegates would find him an acceptable alternative. But this would mean that a handpicked Establishment candidate, who had not negotiated for voter support throughout the primary process, suddenly found himself in a position to win it all.
Hijacking the Nomination
The prospect of a brokered convention is always a possibility. But, in a year when the outsiders are receiving a majority of public support, when their individual polling percentages are combined, the RNC’s bringing up the prospect of a brokered convention, before the first vote has even been cast in the Iowa Caucuses, literally stinks to high heaven. It is as if the Republican Establishment is already making a strategy to derail the popular vote by installing their own candidate in a pre-rigged nomination process!
A Third-Party Trump Run
This kind of unfairness early on invalidates Trumps promise to run only as a Republican, for implicit in his pledge to the run only as a Republican is the party’s reciprocal commitment to support Trump in return, if he is the eventual nominee. By interfering early on with his ability to achieve the nomination, the RNC in effect cancels out the agreement.
What will probably happen, however, as a result of the RNC’s scheme to prevent Trump from being nominated, is that many grassroots voters who currently support Cruz and Carson—but whose second choice is Trump—will make a conscious decision to switch to their second choice now, putting Trump above the 50% he needs. Seeing what is happening, other primary voters will pile on, hoping to make the Republican Party Establishment pay.
In the scenario outlined above, rather than risk another Establishment candidate—who will run an uninspiring campaign as Democrat-Lite, where Republican votes will not do much to change Washington—the grassroots will coalesce behind the leader way ahead of time, rather than risk the election of another K Street Establishment insider of either the Democrat or Republican variety.
So, it is becoming increasingly clear that, for Americans who value the Second Amendment (which Trump strongly supports), a pause of immigration (until border security and competent vetting can be achieved), and a pro-growth economic policy (with a cancelation of the horrible Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty), along with a strong military that protects America, the early default position must be a decision to vote for Trump. Therefore, what the RNC has hoped to prevent it actually ends up causing to happen.
And so it goes. . . .
The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by EagleRising.com