This past weekend conservatives gathered in Iowa for the Family Leadership Summit, and boy were they in for some fireworks. It was at this gathering that Trump may have made his biggest blunder to date when he managed to disparage every American POW while ticking off a huge portion of the GOP base when he was just trying to mock John McCain. (A note to Donald Trump – mocking John McCain wins you points, disparaging his military service just about ends your campaign.) In fact, if not for this HUGE mistake Donald Trump may have won big gains in Iowa, as Congressman Steve King mentioned on CNN over the weekend.
Well, I’d say today he is a legitimate entity. And there is something that I see that mirrors some of the path I’ve followed. You know, I’ve stepped up and said things that were objective and delicate and truthful. And nobody listened. Then I doubled down on that to the point where they did listened. Then they tried to marginalize me, but I was speaking objective truth and fact.
Donald Trump did the same thing. And in the attempt to marginalize him has pushed him to the top of the polls. So right now he is legitimate, and he is a player. And I would say this, that if the caucus took place in Iowa today, I believe Donald Trump would come out on top.
Sadly for Trump his popularity in Iowa is very likely fleeting.
However, there is another candidate who may just be beginning his love affair with the Hawkeye State. Governor Scott Walker recently established a new high water mark in Iowa polling by crossing the 20% support threshold and basically making every other candidate irrelevant. The most recent Monmouth University poll finds Walker leading all candidates with 22% support (and leading all candidates as the choice for 2nd with 13%), his closest competitor is Donald Trump at 13% and we’ve already discussed the problems that Trump recently made for himself.
Tea Party – Walker leads Trump 27% to 14% among Tea Party supporters, with Ted Cruz in coming third at 12%. Among non-supporters of the Tea Party, Walker has a nominal lead (18%), followed by Trump (11%), Bush (11%), and Carson (9%)…
Evangelicals – Evangelical voters favor Walker (17%), Trump (13%), Cruz (10%), Carson (10%), and Huckabee (9%). Non-evangelical voters prefer Walker (26%), Trump (12%), and Bush (10%).
If Walker can continue building momentum in Iowa this may bode very well indeed for him… especially in other socially conservative states (I’m talking about you, SEC primary). As of now Walker is the likely Midwestern (Rust Belt) candidate, though Ohio Governor John Kasich will soon be entering the race too, and if Walker can lock up the South and the Midwest as 2015 comes to a close, he will be awful tough for anyone to beat, including Jeb Bush.
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