That old story from Democrats about voter fraud not being any big deal, seems to be just that… a story.
According to the research done by the Washington Post non-citizens have indeed changed the outcome of some recent federal elections!
Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
|Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens|
|Self reported and/or verified||38 (11.3%)||13 (3.5%)|
|Self reported and verified||5 (1.5%)||N.A.|
|Adjusted estimate||21 (6.4%)||8 (2.2%)|
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
The Washington Post used the data gathered by the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Their research shows that more than 14% of non-citizens were actually registered to vote in 2008 and 2010! The research also shows that ID’s wouldn’t make much of a difference in stopping this kind of voter fraud – because almost 75% of non-citizens who were asked to provide photo ID were still able to vote!
Admittedly there are limitations to the research… but the overall implications of the numbers seem to imply something very disconcerting. Non-citizens have actually swayed important state and federal elections.
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