“It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.” That’s the traditional refrain for those who want to point out the campaign isn’t settled. After yesterday’s five primaries, Valkyrie Brünnhilde, the character played by a very large lady with horned helmet, spear and round shield, hasn’t begun her 20-minute aria which ends Wagner’s Der Ring des Nibelungen. It now looks as if the fat lady will not be able to sing until the convention in Cleveland.
After last night, an open convention seems likely.
Donald Trump had a great night, winning four out of the five primaries, but in the results were also the seeds of his destruction. No Republican has ever won the nomination without winning Ohio. That trend will be broken this year. Last night Kasich won his home state of Ohio, but based on the math, he will not be the nominee, nor will he be chosen as a consensus candidate at the convention.
The Kasich win makes it difficult for Trump to get the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination before the convention. Ted Cruz won nothing but did raise his delegate count. On the positive side, thanks to Marco Rubio dropping out, Cruz finally got what he wanted, head to head with Donald Trump. Looking at the math, while it will be difficult for Trump to get to 1,237, it will be even more difficult for Ted Cruz to get the majority of delegates before the convention. And it will be impossible for John Kasich to get there.
As things stand now it will also be unlikely for Trump to win the 59% of remaining delegates he needs to get to the 1,237 number. Which means the GOP will likely have an open convention, something that radio host Hugh Hewitt predicted about a year ago.
BTW, Trump has claimed that the 1,237 is an irrelevant number pulled out of some GOP leader’s hat. Actually it’s called a majority; 1,237 is half of the total delegates, plus one.
The question now is how close to the number can he come. So far Donald Trump has won approximately 47% of the delegates.
If he keeps winning at that rate, he will have about 1,115 going into the convention — still short, but close enough that he will not be denied at an open convention. So the #nevertrump forces will have to keep the Donald to a percentage significantly less than 47% of the remainder to stop Trump from getting the nomination–a tough but not impossible task.
The next debate (on Fox) is scheduled for this coming Monday in Utah. And since Trump has announced he will not be attending the debate (he will be giving a speech at the AIPAC convention), the debate will be an interesting opportunity for Cruz/Kasich.
Below are the states who haven’t picked their delegates:
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